Will a post-Brexit recession keep employment lawyers busy?
By Charlie Britten
15 Aug 2019
Since taking office last summer, Boris Johnson has negotiated a new Brexit deal and then won the general election that gave him the clear majority he needed to pass it. But there may yet be a no-deal scenario if trade talks with the EU fail.
The lingering threat of a ‘hard Brexit’ has led to many warnings from economists and captains of industry that the UK could still suffer a major economic shock, as international trade suddenly becomes costlier due to the tariffs that would arise if trade with the EU defaults to World Trade Organisation terms.
Other potential problems arise to do with the bureaucracy involved in moving goods across borders and the impact this will have on ‘just-in-time’ manufacturing.
Will there be job losses?
At present, the economy is still sustaining very high employment:
- The latest official figures
- Economic growth remains stable. Following a contraction in the second quarter of 2019, the economy rebounded with 0.4% growth in the third.
- However, if there is a subsequent downturn, this may create a situation to keep the employment lawyers very busy.
- If companies decide to lay off significant numbers of staff, hard decisions will be required about redundancies.
What laws may change and when?
A more pressing question may concern foreign nationals whose right-to-work status might be under question after Brexit, especially those from the EU. Indeed, these questions may loom larger as the government seeks to draw up its own immigration policy in due course.
However, it is worth noting that most UK employment law will not be directly affected by Brexit, at least not immediately. Partly that is because the government’s EU repeal bill - essentially a huge ‘cut and paste’ exercise - means all laws the UK has taken on as an obligation of EU membership will remain on the statute books unless and until they are repealed and replaced by something else.
- Many were established before 1972 (holiday with pay, for instance, dates to the 1930s)
- Other legislation passed during Britain’s EU membership has been a matter for UK law. For example, while the EU requires minimum levels of parental leave after the birth of a child, the UK’s statutory provision exceeds this.
Indeed, the government set out in January 2019 how EU citizens living and working here at the time of a no-deal Brexit will retain their rights. In addition, Irish citizens will still have all the rights they enjoy as part of the common travel area, based on legislation that predated both countries joining the EEC in 1972.
Therefore, the key question for employment lawyers may concern what arises from the development of new immigration laws going forwards.
Mr Johnson has advocated an Australian-style points system,
- If there is a lasting recession and a decline in the jobs market, that may tempt the government to impose a more restrictive regime.
- Against that, if anyone in Westminster does harbour such ambitions in a bid to create more labour market flexibility, public opposition and the fear of electoral consequences may limit how far they can go.
How can we help?
SME law firms practising in the employment law field will find they can market themselves successfully at a time of growing demand for their services if they have a focused content marketing strategy combined with social media and email. If certain groups of people find they are more affected than others by employment law changes, this will shape the nature of the target markets such firms will seek to serve.
At BeUniqueness we can help your firm draw up just such a plan, enabling you to highlight how you can deal with your clients’ needs in a fast-changing world.